Increasingly, we’re hearing that charities are going to have to face up to a “new normal”. In other words, a world in which they have to do more with less.
The average charity worker hears from every side that you face year upon year of terrible, lean, depressing times. The world, we hear, will never go back to how it was; things have changed forever.
The thing is, forever is a long time.
It’s a good time, I think, to revisit one of my favourite parables, which goes something like this:
Once upon a time a king asked his wise men to make something that would make him sad when he was happy, and happy when he was sad. After much discussion they came back with a ring for him to wear. Around the outside were carved the words “this too shall pass”.
I have to wonder whether in 1933 or 1979, British charities thought that the good times were gone for good. Were they adapting to a “new normal” of high unemployment, high inflation and low growth? Could they see no way for things to change?
But things did change.
Remember that just now, at the lowest ebb in our economic cycle for many years, what we’re worrying about is a slowdown in real-terms GDP growth. Or to put it another way: for the last couple of years, this country has been getting richer more slowly than we’re used to.
Of course, that underestimates the issue for many people, because the pain has been spread unequally. The ordinary worker is now only as rich as in 2003.
Now obviously, getting poorer isn’t pleasant. But I don’t remember 2003 being unbearable. If you were able to go back to 2003, and you talked to people about how terribly poor everyone was, you’d get some pretty confused looks.
Still, what’s true of the rest of the UK might not be true for charities, because government spending has been falling faster than other parts of the economy, and that’s one of voluntary organisations’ main sources of funding.
But that ignores the fact that pre-recession, the voluntary sector was growing like topsy – statutory funding alone rose 62 per cent in a decade. And even with sharp spending cuts still on the way, the state is clear in its wish to procure more from the sector. So I wouldn’t be surprised if government funding turns out to be flattening, not freefalling.
But there are some signs things are beginning to turn around. Stock markets – normally a lead indicator – are rising again. Unemployment is still relatively low for a recession. Inflation is low. Interest rates are incredibly low.
And not everyone’s skint. The giant companies that make up so much of our economy are sitting on huge piles of cash, just waiting for confidence to improve so they can start spending again.
And there are some signs that confidence – among consumers, businesses and charities – is beginning to nudge upwards.
It’s been a terrible few years. But then, these lean times follow an extraordinarily long boom. Some people in this country are terribly poor, and getting poorer. Some people had been terribly hurt by this recession.
But it’s easy to lose proportion. The UK, as a whole, remains rich. Compared to almost any other country, at any other time in history, we are, in fact, stinking, filthy rich.
So I would say to you, remember: this too shall pass.